Crisi in Crimea: The Crimea "back home": a threat or a reassurance for Central Asia?

BISHKEK (TCA) — It happened before and it happens again. Will it happen also in Central Asia? Probably not, although the Uygur movement in Xinjiang is closely monitored by China. The same happens in the South of Kyrgyzstan and the Fergana Valley where protests are frequent but common sense still prevails.

The Crimea, with a vote much more overwhelming than thought by any party involved (ethnic Russians make up for hardly more than 60 per cent of the population while leaders of the local Tatar community has proclaimed loyalty to Kiev), declared itself part of the Russian Federation. Whether annexation is on the immediate agenda remains doubtful, given the international mood today. The most likely option is that after Georgia’s two split-off provinces Abkhazia and South-Ossetia, the Crimea will obtain more autonomy under a silent Russian protection. In that case, hawks and warmongers on both sides can be silenced and the world can go back to business with Ukraine’s claims taken for granted but never executed.

The international scene has all the good reasons to keep up discretion, since there is a precedent in former Yugoslavia that cannot be ignored and has cleverly been used by the Kremlin to get away with the Crimea. “Russian state media reported that 95.5 per cent of people in the southern province, which has been occupied by Russian forces for the past fortnight, voted on Sunday in favour of leaving Ukraine. Some 3.5 per cent were said to have chosen more autonomy while remaining part of the country. A Kremlin statement said Putin also told Obama during the call, which the US initiated, that the case of Crimea was in line with the so-called “Kosovo precedent”. Putin has claimed that the recognition of the former Yugoslavian territory as a sovereign state in 2008 established a legal framework for secession that could be repeated by other separatist movements. The White House’s read-out of the call did not mention such a discussion and instead said that Obama ‘emphasized that Russia’s actions were in violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity’.”

On the ground, there seems to be a much better understanding of reality than in Washington and Brussels. “The defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a truce in Crimea until March 21,” Reuters wrote quoting Ukraine’s acting defense minister Ihor Tenyukh as stating on Sunday. "An agreement has been reached with (Russia’s) Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Defense Ministry on a truce in Crimea until March 21. No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea during that time. Our military sites are therefore proceeding with a replenishment of reserves."

Today, there are no notable separatist movements anywhere in Central Asia and Russia’s “window to the west” will not see a “window to the south” added to it.